inhuman14

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I just watched a startling Nova show.

You have heard about Global Warming, but have you heard about global dimming?

First, and article about global warming skepticism.


The Producer's Story:
A Taxonomy of Skepticism
by David Sington



Filmmaker David Sington has been making films about the Earth sciences since 1991, but it was a film he made 10 years later called "The Day the Oceans Boiled" that really opened his eyes to the threat from global warming. "Dimming the Sun" is the second film he's done on the subject, and he's working on a third. Here, Sington offers his opinion as to why many people in the U.S., more so than in his native Europe, remain skeptical about how much global warming is due to human activities.



Like most films that we at DOX Productions make for NOVA, "Dimming the Sun" is a coproduction between a U.K. broadcaster and WGBH, Boston. So we are well used to creating two slightly different versions, one for the British audience and one for the American. Often the difference is simply one of language, those little Britishisms and Americanisms that cause so much innocent amusement (you say "tomato", we say "genetically modified organism"). But "Dimming the Sun" posed an interesting and unusual challenge: how to deal with the fact that British and American viewers are, so to speak, in a different place when it comes to global warming.

In general, Americans seem rather more skeptical about the idea that human activity is changing the climate than we British are. This impression, which led us to adopt a subtly different approach in the two versions, got me thinking about the whole question of why so many people still reject an idea that must be one of the most intensively studied and widely accepted in modern science, and why Americans seem more resistant to it than Europeans are.

An average view
Climate change skepticism, it seems to me, has a number of different sources. Firstly, there are what one might call arguments from common sense. It seems obvious that if meteorologists have trouble forecasting the weather three weeks from now, how on Earth can they claim to predict it three decades hence?

The answer to this, of course, is that scientists are forecasting not weather but average weather (i.e., climate). It is much easier to predict averages than individual values. The casino owners have no more knowledge than the gambler where the ball will fall on any particular turn of the wheel. But the owners know the averages are in their favor and can predict with mathematical precision the monthly take from each roulette table.

In fact, only three factors determine the planet's energy balance: the sun's output, the Earth's reflectivity, or albedo, and the thermal properties of the atmosphere, which are affected by the level of certain trace gases like carbon dioxide and water vapor. Reduced to its essentials, the greenhouse effect is a problem in 19th-century classical physics, and the basic theory was worked out with pencil and paper in the 1890s. To say that increasing CO2 levels leads to more heat trapped in the atmosphere is really no more scientifically controversial than saying you'll feel warmer if you put on a sweater.

The difficulty arises when you try to work out what this extra heat energy will do. Will it lead to increased rainfall, or more cloud, or higher winds? It will raise temperatures, but by how much? This is where the complex computer models and the (legitimate) scientific arguments come in—accompanied by the occasional science filmmaker!

Force of nature
A second kind of skepticism arises, I believe, from a deep-seated psychological attitude towards the natural world. For most of human history, our ancestors knew themselves to be highly vulnerable to natural disasters and setbacks—floods, famines, plagues of locusts, and the like. The sense that Nature is big and powerful, and that we are puny by comparison, is rooted deep in the human psyche. So it is genuinely difficult for most people to believe that something they do as individuals—driving their SUV or turning up the air con—could possibly be having an effect on something as vast as the world's climate.


Global warming is nothing less than a fact, and it has to be faced.



Yet this attitude, that humanity is dwarfed by its environment, is several thousand years out of date. Ever since the development of agriculture, we have been progressively adapting the global environment to our own ends, to the point now where it is estimated that human beings co-opt between 20 and 40 percent of the entire planet's net primary productivity.

For example, according to some estimates, industry today fixes as much nitrogen as the planet's bacteria. We now dominate the nitrogen cycle, a fundamental process vital to life. Even basic geological processes, such as the transport of sediments from the continents to the ocean floor, are now effectively under human control. Humanity itself is now a force of Nature, and a very powerful one. We need to shift our mindset to accommodate this profound fact.

The American way
There is a third reason why people reject the idea of man-made climate change. It is my observation that on the whole people tend to believe what is convenient to them. Faced with a choice between an awkward fact and a comforting fiction, most people will take the fiction any day. And global warming is certainly inconvenient. Just when we have finally freed ourselves from the tedium of tilling the earth and gotten nice and comfortable with a big TV, central heating, cheap flights to exotic destinations, and an armor-plated all-terrain vehicle for nipping down to the mall, along come some bloody scientists to tell us that we can't go on as we are and as we like doing.

I have a sneaking sympathy for those conservatives who seem to regard the greenhouse effect as an unwarranted interference with the workings of the free-market economy. But as a bit of a political conservative myself, I have always thought that the guiding spirit of conservatism was the determination to see the world as it really is, to cast away the rose-tinted spectacles. Global warming is nothing less than a fact, and it has to be faced.

In my experience, these skeptics of the third kind are much more prevalent in the USA than in Europe. I think this may be partly to do with a particularly American attitude to money. American rhetoric tends to present prosperity as the natural consequence of political freedom. Like democracy, it becomes a moral good in its own right. Anyone who seems to question the wisdom of unconstrained economic growth risks appearing un-American, if not downright immoral.

Taking the lead
But in my view, tackling global warming is extremely unlikely to damage the American economy. What's required is another industrial revolution. America is rather good at these. Britain led the first (coal and steam), but America has pioneered the rest (the internal combustion engine, telecommunications, computers). Each one only adds to our prosperity, and it will be the same once again.

But there is an important difference from previous industrial revolutions. This one requires political leadership; the market on its own won't do it. As an Englishman I am often impatient with the notion of America as "the indispensable nation," but on this occasion I think that it is. To combat global warming, the world desperately needs U.S. leadership.

I am optimistic enough to believe that we won't have to wait much longer. The pace of global warming is now quickening to the point where it will soon be obvious to everyone. When you can discuss the question sitting at a pavement café in London in November in your shirtsleeves, you just know something is up, and all skepticism becomes moot.

I found this on a friend's blog.


Ever wonder about those people who say they are giving more than 100%?

We have all been to those meetings where someone wants over 100%. How about achieving 103%? Here's a little math that might prove helpful.

What makes life 100%?

If:

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z

Is represented as:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26.

Then:

H A R D W O R K

8 1 18 4 23 15 18 11 = 98%

K N O W L E D G E

11 14 15 23 12 5 4 7 5 = 96%

But,

A T T I T U D E

1 20 20 9 20 21 4 5 = 100%

And,

B U L L S H I T

2 21 12 12 19 8 9 20 = 103%

So, it stands to reason that hard work and knowledge will get you close, attitude will get you there, and bullshit will put you over the top.

But, look how far ass kissing will take you.

A S S K I S S I N G

1 19 19 11 9 19 19 9 14 7 = 118%

Lesson learned.

1. Grab the nearest book.
2. Open it to page 161.
3. Find the fifth sentence.
4. Post the text of the sentence in your journal along with these instructions.
5. Don't search around and look for the coolest book you can find. Use what's actually next to you.

"I'm simply asking you to do as your father commanded."

Pretty good.

Get your own spectral analysis from Area 23®

Blah. pink.

I like this user pic.

The site that I update much more often is my Xanga.
www.xanga.com/inhuman14

It's too bad you can't host music on LJ.
Otherwise I might post more often.

First post in a while. Woopdeedoo. Band is fun.

things are fun over here, with the summer coming to a close and the Marching band winding up into gear. Not only is the marching season starting up, but the time for school and classes. The end to this summer is bittersweet, as I had fun, but am still looking forward (in general) to school. I have developed a recent fondness for the celtic artist Enya, as well as the good old beatles. I am also getting braces. Ironically, it is the day before school starts that they get put in, so I am going to have fun with that :-/. I got put into the sophomore band, which is going to more challenging and ingeneral more fun. I always like a little competition. in case anyone has missed it, My email address is now suzuki.ian@gmail.com. Here's the lyrics to Wild Child, By Enya.

Ever close your eyes
ever stop and listen
ever feel alive
and you've nothing missing
you don't need a reason
let the day go on and on

Let the rain fall down
everywhere around you
give into it now
let the day surround you
you don't need a reason
let the rain go on and on

What a day
what a day to take to
what a way
what a way
to make it through
what a day
what a day to take to
a wild child

Only take the time
from the helter skelter
every day you find
everything's in kilter
you don't need a reason
let the day go on and on

Every summer sun
every winter evening
every spring to come
every autumn leaving
you don't need a reason
let it all go on and on

What a day
what a day to take to
what a way
what a way
to make it through
what a day
what a day to take to
a wild child
What a day
what a day to take to
What a way
what a way
to make it through
What a day
what a day to take to
a wild child
What a day
what a day to take to
what a way
what a way
to make it through
what a day
what a day to take to
Da-da-da
Da-da-da-da-da-da
what a way
what a way
to make it through
Da-da-da
Da-da-da-da-da-da
Da-da-da
Da-da-da-da-da-da
What a way
what a way
to make it through
what a day
what a day to take to
a wild child
what a day
what a day to take to

Band camp is fun. I really wish it hadn't ended, because it was fun work. apparently, this is one of the best bands that we've had, and we have all of the segments nailed. we're done with the tough gritty stuff, (if I hear the following words any more, I think I'm going to puke: get your horn up! It's a damn flute, for heavens sake. *note it's not my problem, it is the other flutes*) and are about to start working on the fine We have a 209 piece band this year, and that is a lot.

I'm retiring, so bye.

Band Camp is *cough*horrible*cough fun, and I am *cough*dying*cough* enjoying myself. After about the 10th hour of standing there on the field, your head starts to go fuzzy. I am writinng after the first day has ended, and am waiting for my car ride to band camp again. the days are 9 A.M. - 11 P.M. and including water and food breaks, that's around 11 1/2 hours. during that time, we are either standing up with instruments in hand, motionless, or marching up and down the field- with instruments in hand. I now have an idea about what boot camp is like in the army, and it renews my resolve not to go into the army or other armed force. I'm not really complaining, I'm just whining. even with this, I'm going to come back next year and do it all over again. The Funky Winkerbean cartoon about the demining project in Afghanistan is faily accurate. (by the way, he just stepped on a land mine, I'm waiting to see what happens) It's the one where he says:

"Man I can't remember when I've ever been doing so much work."

"Sure you can."

"I can?"

"Yeah."

"When?"

"Band camp."

"Oh, band camp was never this good."

http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/image/0502/HLmystery_nsl.gif


Mysterious object over Hawai'i!! This is a genuine ufo, an unidentified flying object. the length of this object is about twice that of the full moon's diameter. Eyewitnesses report that it was very slightly transparent, as you will read later in the email. Even more intriguing, this object was visible for approximately 50 minutes, far longer than the normal period of a few minutes for a satellite trail or a few seconds for a meteorite.








dolph wrote:
...In short, in an order of magnitude calculation, it appears that this object is likely in a GTO (geosynchronous transfer orbit). The large size and slow motion make it an ideal candidate for the fuel dump theory...



ExNihilo wrote:
I have no doubt the object was in a high orbit and dumping fuel along a geosynchronous transfer orbit. The orbital inclination corresponds well with a Kennedy Space Center Launch, and the perspective from Hawaii corresponds with a viewing geometry along the transfer orbit, with the apparent "slowing" indeed being caused by the change of perspective relative to the direction of the orbit. The transfer orbit was to have an 18.2 degree inclination, which seems to correspond well with the observed track:

http://www.aus-city.com/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=4;t=001145;p=0

The observed time of the track at Hawaii corresponds well with a fuel dump from the upper stage occurring after the satellite, with its final geostationary boost module attached, separated at 1355 UT. Also, with launch from Cape Kennedy to a parking orbit of 166x5239 KM occurring at 1207 UT, the arrival of the vehicle over Hawaii at the time observed seems to be in good agreement with orbital dynamics. Further, passage of the vehicle through its ascending node (crossing the equator heading ENE) shortly before observation at Hawaii is also quite consistent.


malaclypse wrote:
go to the atlas-16 flight path (previously posted) listed here:
http://www.spaceflightnow.com/atlas/av005/041214track.html

this satellite was commissioned by a satTV company (Echostar's DISH Network) to send a signal obtainable in all 50 states, so it's path would have placed it in a geosynchronous orbit somewhere near north america. if you connect the dots, so to speak, between separation and the US, the satellite would have passed to the southeast of hawaii. meanwhile, the sun would have been just below the horizon in the east (as it was about 4:15 am local time when the pictures were taken), and because of the inclination of the earth on dec 17th (the southern hemisphere tilted towards the sun at ~22 degrees w/ respect to the equator), the cloud of fuel/gas/whatever would have been in a direct line (on the earth's surface) between the sun and hawaii, in perfect position to reflect the sun's rays back down to the telescopes there...


Hawaiian Starman wrote:
*eyewitness*
I live in South Kona on the Big Island. I awoke in the very early AM. The sky was quite clear that AM. As I gazed up towards the zenith, tracking close to Leo was a very large "white blob". Being a frequent star gazer my initial response was "What the f#$# is that"!. I have never seen an object like it before. It's size was approximately twice, maybe a little more, than the Full Moon diameter.

After watching it track very slowly for about 10 minutes, I decided it was worth a look in my telescope. I have a 4" Vernonscope Refractor. Magnification was 20x. The wide field revealed a very soft light - no it was not a weather balloon as others have suggested - with stars visible behind it. Rather than some distinct object it seemed that a light was shining on part of the sky!

Even stranger was what I observed on the southern side of the object. About 3 full moon diameters away was a small dot of pale yellow/white light that looked and tracked like a satellite, however, moved much slower. Don't know about distance above the Earth, however, if it was in the atmosphere, there was no sound of any engine noise (I live in a very quiet area of the Island and any atmospheric sound from an airplane etc. would be audible). Also, there was no observable beam of light coming from the small object.

>From the time I picked up the object until it disappeared into the East about 45 minutes later, it remained "parallel" to the "white blob", never varying its distance or speed. I have observed airplanes across the sky here, and this was not moving like an airplane. This tells me the object's distance from the Earth Surface was significantly higher.

- the "object's" brightness remained consistent during my observation (around 45 minutes). I'd say the magnitude was definitely on the minus side of the scale. Very easy naked eye object. It was not as visually bright as Arctaurus. However, since it covered a significantly larger part of the sky, visual magnitude was difficult to discern. The magnitude of the companion "satellite" or whatever it was, probably would be around 8 or 9 magnitude - definitely not naked eye (sky visibility was very good as the Southern Milky Way was quite vivid.

- there was only 1 small object tracking to the right of the white blob. If there was a second piece to the Centaur rocket, I didn't see it telescopically. ...




Ian writes, Personally, I think that it was a covert-op military satelite.


http://bb.nightskylive.net/asterisk/viewtopic.php?t=291 here's the hyperlink for the discussion.
http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap050208.html here's the hyperlink for the original article.
www.nightskylive.net here's the hyperlink for the cameras that took the picture.

Yeah, same story, just worse. Up in Connecticut and Massachusetts, I found mosquito paradise. In total I have found 37 mosquito bites, and they won't abate for long, even with hydrocortisone cream. Oh, yeah. And a spider bite. It itches a little, but when I made the mistake of treating it, The dull/stinging pain had full control. after 2 days of hydrocortisone treatment, though, they are mostly done *scratch* scratching. 15 on one arm. See why I hate mosquitos?

Well, life is giving me numerous curveballs and sliders and screw- okay, you're going too far, Ian. Anyways, We sent a package to Michael, with books in it and Swim season is going well. On the flip side... Poison ivy is not fun. neither are bed bugs. or Strep throat. Man my life sucks right now. *Can't Scratch* Can't... Scratch.... AAAAAAUGH!! Scratchscratchscratchscratchscratchscratchscratchscratch aaaaahh... AIIIEEE

how jedi are you? :: by lawrie malen

Yay, marching band has started! Hey, uncle mike, I have joined the activity most like boot camp! Anyways, the music is challenging(yesssss) and the marching tough, so I will be very occupied this summer. July 26-August 14 is 5 days a week. one of those weeks is Band camp, and that is 9-11. 11 PM. Yeah, that is a 14 hour day. But I am not complaining, because this is going to be fun. Oh, (freind) michael, get this: in order to pay off some of the money that my mom is investing in Marching band, I am going to volunteer at Glen Helen to weed the forest of (you guessed it) Honeysuckle. yay.

Well, we have finished three gardens, having moved over 2 tons of topsoil and a lesser amount of mulch over the weekend. MANY MANY thanks go to

Mom. Thank you mom for providing me with the opportunity to make money. Oh, and all that other stuff too (like being a mom)
Michael O. for working
electromagman for working
Colin for working
Steven for working.

Still, there's more to come, and I am welcoming the coming of the swim season (for swimming, perverts), Marching Band season, and Summer break. 8 more days!!!

"Free at last!
Free at last!
Thank God almighty, we're free at last!"

Yay I got 1st! I won my division, even though it was two people and got this humongous trophy! Elena got one too, and it is nearly as big as she is! Now I am REALLY sore.

I have another band tournament NE of Columbus! yay! It happens to be a relatively big one, so I will get points for the state team if I place.